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A4 THE ASTORIAN • THuRSdAy, dEcEmbER 30, 2021 OPINION editor@dailyastorian.com KARI BORGEN Publisher DERRICK DePLEDGE Editor Founded in 1873 SHANNON ARLINT circulation manager JOHN D. BRUIJN Production manager CARL EARL Systems manager BEHIND THE NEWS ‘It’s sort of a wide open landscape’ O pen seats in state Senate District 16 and state House District 32 will put the North Coast in the political spotlight next year. The potentially competitive cam- paigns, which will likely attract money and interest from across Oregon, come at a fraught moment for political parties. After President Joe Biden was inau- gurated last January, Gallup’s national tracking on party affiliation found that 50% considered themselves indepen- dents. The number was 41% in Novem- ber. In Clatsop County, nonaffili- ated voters outnumber Democrats and Republicans. “When people see the national gov- ernment, and it seems very discon- nected, they don’t feel that linkage to the parties that I think used to exist,” said Andy Davis, the chairman of Clat- sop County Democrats and a research analyst for the Oregon Health Authority. “So we’ve got to create that again and figure out ways to connect to people.” Davis, who ran unsuccessfully for the county Board of Commissioners in 2018, has chaired the Countywide Cit- izens Advisory Committee and served on the county’s budget committee. In an interview, Davis talked about finding can- didates for the state Sen- ate and state House, the challenges political par- ties are facing and what DERRICK he sees as the dominant DePLEDGE policy issues for next year’s campaigns. Q: Betsy Johnson resigned from the state Senate to run for governor as an independent. State Rep. Suzanne Weber is giving up her state House seat to run for the Senate. That leaves two open seats on the North Coast next year. How does the Democratic Party intend to compete? A: Betsy stepping down amplified the timelines for a lot of these things. Obviously, we knew that she was running for governor. We had heard that Suzanne was going to try and step into the Senate seat. So we had already started the process of sounding out can- didates, trying to talk to people who we thought were likely. There’s also the dynamic of Brad Witt stepping down from his seat (for reelection to the state House as a Democrat from Clatskanie). So it’s a really wide open race in the broader Senate District 16 area. And I think one of the challenges right now is that at most levels of county and city government — we’ve looked for candidates out of those pools — and a lot of those folks are either spoken for or retiring or something like that. So while we’ve got a lot of people who might be interested, I would say there’s not easily anointed candidates who are going to step into those roles. Suzanne is probably the most natu- ral in a lot of ways in that she worked her way up from (Tillamook) mayor to House Rep. and now wants to be the Senate representative for the area. That’s a pretty normal progression. Lydia Ely/The Astorian Andy Davis is the chairman of Clatsop County Democrats. But a lot of the candidates that we’ve talked to, they’re either happy in their roles or they’re looking to retire anyway. So I think that’s a challenge. It’s sort of a wide open landscape. Q: Democrats have held the polit- ical advantage in Clatsop County. But the party seems to be losing some momentum. Johnson is running for governor as an independent, not a Democrat. Weber was the first Repub- lican to win House District 32 for nearly two decades. President Don- ald Trump did better in the county in 2020 than he did in 2016. What do you see as the party’s challenge? A: I think our biggest challenge, and I think it plays out here on the coast, is connecting with groups like labor, which have traditionally been a strong point for Democrats. In the recent ups and downs of the economy — and, frankly, over the last 30 years or so since sort of Clinton Third Way Democrat theory took over — it’s been more difficult for Democrats to connect with labor, with working people. And I think there’s a lot of people within the party who still believe in sup- porting those groups. But how that trans- lates to — especially visible national policy — has changed. I think in our district that comes out strongly. I think we’ve had, say, disagreements. When Tiffiny Mitch- ell was the representative for the dis- trict — she’s a modern Democrat in a lot of ways, progressive Democrat, any- way. And the steelworkers’ union out at Wauna (Mill) had some disagreements with her and her policy. And I think that’s indicative of some of the struggles and divisions within the party. One thing that’s been instructive to me since I became more involved has been just a sort of reality check about the divisions within the U.S. elector- ate and how sustained they are. I read John Adams talking about thirds of the electorate, in essence, or loyalists ver- sus folks who wanted independence and then a third of the people who didn’t know, right? We’re still in a situation that’s not that different. Media landscape has changed. The way conversations happen has changed. Community linkages have changed. But there’s still camps in opposition, and then a lot of people in the middle who are trying to make up their mind about what the best situation is for them. And it varies over time about how they can connect to parties. We’re sort of in a space where that’s true. It’s changing a little bit, and the party has to respond to that, frankly. Q: In Oregon, the share of non- affiliated voters has grown. Part of that is due to the Oregon Motor Voter Act, which made it easier for people to register to vote. But there appears to be some disillusionment with the two major political parties. As of this fall, there were more nonaffiliated voters in the county than Democrats or Republicans. How does the party combat this trend? A: There’s traditional mechanisms, where you’re trying to go out and get people registered to vote and registered for the party. When we had a booth at the county fair, we’re trying to get people regis- tered, too. So those sort of outlets will likely always exist, where we’re trying to sort of actively recruit people. I do think there’s an issue — and this is not unique to the Democrats — but we need to figure out how to connect to younger voters as they’re coming on the rolls as voters and make clear to them that they have a home in either party, assuming that they do align with us in some way. One of the advantages that both par- ties had as far as numbers in the past, even when the registration laws came into effect, was you had a lot of mid- dle-aged and older voters who were pre- viously registered or previously affili- ated or at least thought of themselves as part of one party, right? It’s easy for them to register and say, ‘OK, I’m a Dem’ or ‘I’m a Republican.’ I think there’s enough disillusion- ment, especially with younger people, and disconnection from what the parties do, what the government does. I’ve had conversations with (Warren- ton Mayor) Henry Balensifer, who occa- sionally does some school events and things like that. Just talking to students about how we get electricity, who pays for our roads — basic infrastructure things that are fundamental to how we live, and ultimately a lot of that service comes through government, and there’s a connected part of government that is related to partisan politics. On the local level, often we are nom- inally nonpartisan, but I think there’s also a portion of it that people have ide- ologies that they carry with them even if they’re nonpartisan. And so these things effect us on a day-to-day level. When people see the national govern- ment, and it seems very disconnected, they don’t feel that linkage to the parties that I think used to exist. So we’ve got to create that again and figure out ways to connect to people. Q: What do you see as the dom- inant policy issues heading into the 2022 elections? A: Well I think, nearly always, econ- omy is a huge one. How we recover and the characteris- tics of recovery coming out of COVID are going to be important. Obviously, things like inflation are an issue for a lot of people now. Housing prices, certainly on the North Coast, have escalated almost con- tinuously since our last big downturn. So those create challenges for people — they’re real, felt, real things. And, often, if they’re not good — if those challenges are presenting in a way that makes people’s lives harder, they’re going to vote against the people in power no matter who that is. And that’s completely understand- able, too. I think that there are issues in the U.S. right now that have a lot to do with distrust of government, broadly. I think that a lot of the conversations we have around school boards, around what’s happening with COVID, boil down for a lot of people to whether they trust the people that are making statements at any given point. And that changes sometimes, based on partisanship. But for people in the middle, there’s some track record of the government not always being upfront with people. So I think there’s justifiable reason for people to say, ‘Do I want to go along with these regulations?’ ‘Do I trust these people to teach my kids the right way?’ And all that’s valid — valid in the sense of there may be a track record where I should not take things at face value, and I should do my own homework, and things like that. So there’s a big challenge for anyone in government right now to get across to people that they’re trying to do the right thing. derrick dePledge is editor of The Astorian. GUEST COLUMN Child care a boost our economy needs C hild care is one of the biggest and Development countries in its spend- ing on family benefits including child expenses many families face — care, at less than two-thirds of one percent in much of the country, it can run higher than college tuition. Could of gross domestic product. a national child care program ease that Only Turkey trailed us. The United burden? Kingdom, a lot like us in many ways, We’ve come close before. During spends more than five times as much as World War II, the federal government the United States. provided child care around the clock to Yet the economic case for investing enable more women to work in the war in early childhood education and care is industries. In 1971, we nearly got strong. Universal preschool is a a national child care program until two-generation anti-poverty strat- egy that also benefits the mid- President Richard Nixon vetoed dle class. Decades of research find legislation that had strong biparti- san support. that it reduces inequality by gen- der, race, ethnicity and income. Now, with U.S. Sen. Joe Man- chin stalling President Joe Biden’s Children from families with lower Build Back Better Act, we could be incomes gain the most, but all chil- MARY C. dren make gains. on the brink of another disappoint- KING ment. Or, if the bill can be res- As it is now, young children cued, our country may get another have the highest poverty rates of opportunity to make a historic investment any age group in this country — and the in our future. cost of child care helps explain why. Among many other things, the Build Child care is simply so expensive that Back Better Act would cap child care many parents, especially mothers, cannot payments for working families at no more afford to work, which permanently lowers than 7% of their income — while raising their lifetime incomes. Single mothers, wages for child care workers. who are raising almost a quarter of U.S. The U.S. is far behind other affluent children, are particularly vulnerable. — and even less affluent — nations, in Women’s ability to work in the U.S. is the support it provides families with chil- falling behind other countries — includ- ing Germany, Canada and Japan — due dren. In 2017, the U.S. was 37th of the 38 to our weak family policies. But we don’t Organisation for Economic Co-operation have to look far to find successful exam- ples of public investments in child care. Washington, D.C.’s universal preschool program has increased the labor force par- ticipation of mothers by 10 percentage points, raising family incomes. Care like this isn’t just good for par- ents. High quality preschool eases the transition to kindergarten and raises high school graduation rates, college atten- dance and incomes. Down the line, it also reduces unemployment, crime, incarcera- tion and other social ills. Even families without kids benefit. The higher the education rate in a local- ity, the higher the wages are for everyone, regardless of their education, because companies can be more productive with a skilled labor force. Finally, part of ensuring quality child care means paying child care workers sal- aries comparable to elementary school teachers. Without decent wages to support their families, these jobs see very high turnover — which limits the experience and relationships that are critical to qual- ity care. Federal investment in early child- hood and care is long overdue. It’s the best economic development project we could undertake, with significant gains to the community as a whole, as well as to children, their families and preschool Elaine Thompson/AP Photo Young children have the highest poverty rates of any age group in this country — and the cost of child care helps explain why. workers. The rest of the wealthy world has far lower rates of child poverty, a critical pre- dictor of future marginalization, than we do — largely because they invest much more in their children. Let’s not waste another 50 years before investing in our children, our families and our future. mary c. King is a professor of econom- ics emerita at Portland State university.